The strong opposition of Russia, the common sense of the American President, effectively avoided a conflict that Saudi Arabia and France had decided to start.
The refusal of Saudi Arabia to accept the Seat of Non Permanent Member of the Security Council of the United Nations , and the strong opposition of France to lifting the Iran’s embargo are the clear signals of the changing the relationships among the USA, Europe, the Middle East, and the Arab World. The Iraq war, and its tragic conclusion had already compelled everybody in the West to review their foreign policies , which had developed up to then on quite simple lines.Their political and economic relationships, their reciprocal trading, and even their “reserved information ”, continued not withstanding some ruptures, or were re-established according to the old procedures.
The fall of the Persian Regime and the establishment of a religious dictatorship in Iran got a strong American reaction, but , at the end , everything continued as before : the demise of Reza Pahlavi had suspended the ambitious nuclear program considered by Israel with great fear , even after that the Israeli scientists were invited to participate to its development and to its abandon.The change in Iran was basically considered benignly by all Western Countries, but the repercussion on the near Iraq was not really considered The Ayatollah could live well on Iran’s oil production, and if the Persian ladies had to wear a chador, that would increase the textile production. The law on the new garments was a great gift to China and India, which sold to Iran a huge amount of garments , both of great quality and cheap , all absolutely black.
The change came from Iraq. The October 1980, Saddam Houssein started the war with Iran. Surprising and initially under evaluated, the war was immediately saluted by the arms traders as a new and important opportunity to make money, while the great powers , showing a great lack of insight , did not evaluate the terrible consequences , which are still visible today.Sadam Houssein was sure the USA would support him , as they were clearly hostile to the Ayatollahs , but that did not happen. For the whole eight years of duration of the war, Israel visibly supported Iran . When the boss of Bagdad started sending missiles to Israel , he simply signed for his death. Isolated in the Arab World, not considered by the USA , and even by Europe , his dream of leadership in the Arab World was defeated by sides . The reasons that moved the American President Bush son to attack Iraq are not really known, and perhaps will never be. The doubt remains that perhaps the USA started the most cruel, senseless and costly war in the third millennium for somebody else.
The horror could have been repeated now, although in a smaller way , and with different partners , if the USA and Europe had fallen in the Syrian trap. The strong opposition of Russia, the common sense of the American President, effectively avoided a conflict that Saudi Arabia and France had decided to start. The reason for the new bellicosity of France in the Arab World, and in the Middle East, may be various and different , still somewhat confused, and in any case to be checked, as normally happens for the Arab world which is always in a balance with tribal wars, economic wars in , and religiously inspired violence. In any case it is quite evident that in these last years , France has suddenly raised her voice in the politics of that region in a way that had already been visible in the Eighties , with the Chad war against Gadhafi.
Gadhafi was finally killed with similar results , but certainly easily than with the disposal of Sadam Houssein. Paris would have liked to continue his activity against Syria , which disturbed the French position in Lebanon, and , above all, is clearly hated by Saudi Arabia. After the failure of the international mission against Damascus, Holland’s France has continued its mission against Iran, the main allied of Syria , and a dead enemy of Saudi Arabia. The reason was offered by the USA proposal to cancel the embargo against Iran if it did renounce nuclear development , and accept the control of the International Agencies. Obviously, the end of the embargo against Teheran was seen as a danger by Jerusalem , and Prime Minister Natanieu immediately sent an appeal to all the allies of the USA in order that they should oppose a treaty , which was, in his eyes , an intolerable menace against Israel.
After the long absence of the Italian foreign policy in these last decades, Italy came back into play first against the war in Syria , with good motives badly expressed , the an agreement with Iran , with a way of doing that has irritated everybody in the Obama administration.
Immediately before the Geneva conference, Washington was in a delicate situation , as France was menacing to distance herself from NATO , renouncing in fact the 2009 agreements signed by Sarkozy and going back to the nationalist position of De Gaulle , with Saudi Arabia the stronger friend of the USA , and above all with Israel more and more critical towards the Washington policy , and the Democratic President. At this point , it’s easy to suppose that the times are not mature for an agreement , and things will remain as they are , showing again the emptiness of a Geneve Conference, overrun by events , and as a pretext to avoid any conclusion without irritating anybody.
This seems to be the line recently adopted by the USA. Arriving in Abu Dhabi , the America State Secretary, John Kerry has taken a line that many observes understand as a prudent retreat . “The group of five plus one members of the Security Council – he said the eleven of November ,– had met to present our proposals to the Iranians . In this moment , Iran could not accept them.”
Teheran has not answered. Perhaps the Chinese are right .Let’s talk business, to reciprocal economic and commercial agreements. The rest is not relevant.