The new American policy and Europe
Sottotitolo:
The changes in American politics afterTrumps'vitory will in many ways affect Europe. Problems of the French and German governments. The United States is facing a notable transformation in its history. Donald Trump has emphasized in many ways the new aspects of his domestic program on one side and of international policy on the other. For the domestic policy we have to underline three aspects that change the national policy: the immigration, the tariffs to protect the national production, the trade policy in relation to different countries. Domestic policy is, first of all, directed against immigrants, both those arriving and those who do not yet have American citizenship. An exclusion program difficult to implement in a country historically made up of migrants. And, as California shows, from a majority of foreign citizens. The goal to increase the production of goods of American origin is linked to increasing tariffs on foreign imports particularly from China and, possibly, from Mexico, Canada and Europe. The transfer of production of goods is aimed at increasing domestic production and employment. A policy that reverses the tradition of a country whose large companies are partially established in countries with lower work force costs. In essence, a radical change in traditional US policy. International Politics Israel and Palestine Forty-eight thousand Palestinians have been killed so far and many more injured. It is, in fact, a war between the most powerful army in the Middle East against an unarmed people. In any case, Hamas, which represents a large part of the Palestinian people, is not isolated. Many countries recognize its role, from China to Russia, passing through Iran and South Arabia. But the American government of Biden, first, and now of Trump, considers Israel its strongest ally in the Middle East. China In other words, the conflict between the United States and China is becoming central in many respects and with an uncertain evolution at a global level. Europe and Russia In any case, there are some aspects of the European policy that deserve to be considered. In the autumn of 2021 Germany, under the leadership of Angela Merkel, established, in a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, an important agreement between Germany and Russia. It allowed the opening of the second gas pipeline to Germany and to other European countries. And also facilitated other aspects of trade policy. In essence, a settlement that strengthened relations between Germany, the most important western European country, and Russia. An important event for the European countries after years of strained relationships, But it was an agreement that was in contrast with the policy of the United States that considered Russia the main adversary in international policy. A policy in clear contrast with the current European policy supporting Ukraine against Russia – a position strongly supported by Ursula Von der Leyen head of the European Commission. At the same time, under the leadership of Olaf Sholz, Germany had returned to a policy based on collaborative relations with the United States. In essence, a position that excluded the friendly relationships with Russia established by Angela Merkel. Europe and Ukraine In France, Emmanuel Macron's presidency could last until autumn 2027. But it is a country without an effective political majority, while the different opposition parties have grown in the last elections. A Paris court found Marine Le Pen (and other eight members of National Rally) guilty of embezzlement of public funds putting Le Pen ineligible for five years gjeopardizing her candidacy in 2027. The sentence could lead to a problem for the Party if confirmed at the higher levels of the judiciary. In this case the lead of the Party should be assumed by the young Bardella, already candidate to lead the government. But the condemn could also be considered a reflection of the political conflict between the far-right opposition and the government with the absolution of Le Pen. In this case Le Pen could be candidate for the presidency of the Republic strengthening the Party. In any case, a circumstance that confirms France's political problems and its uncertain future. Germany, after the early resignation of Scholz, has a new government led by Friedrich Merz of CDU-CSU with a majority of about 29 percent of the Chamber representants. While the Social Democratic Party has had the worst result in its post-war history with about 16 percent of the votes. Merz aims to form a government that could change the Constitution that imposes a strict limit on the public debt. An objective that i calls for a majority of two third of the Parliament - only possible with the participation of the Greens. In any case, a government in stark contrast to the far-right Alternative for Germany, which doubled its votes, with about 20 percent of the electorate. At the same time, the left-wing party Die Link obtained, contrary to predictions, about nine percent of the votes. It has to be added that, the new party "Alliance", created at the beginning of 2024 ly Sahra Wagenknecht - coming from the direction of Link – has obtained in the recent elections a result close to 5 percent- insufficient to have a presence in the national Parliament - but with previous important results in the recent elections of the federal states of Thuringia and Saxony, and in the i region that includes Berlin. It means that a new traditional government coalition is possible. But a week coalition if formed by the two Christian parties along with the week Socialist party. In other words, an uncertain future of German foreign policy. We must add that the Italian government, led by Giorgia Meloni, is generally in agreement with the new US government of Trump. Signifying the possibility of holding a different position towards Ukraine with respect to other European countries and the Italian policy of recent years. A policy more aligned to that of the US. In summary, European politics is substantially divided in front of the new American policy toward the conflict with Russia. Europe – or some European countries risk to be alone – while the US new policy determined to look to other parts of the world is fundamentally not interested in the European policy. In this context, NATO is lost its importance. Russia can be an allied in the new world configuration .As we have seen Europe is only apparently united. In effect, it is divided in the current deeply changing world, being linked to the conflict with Russia without, or with uncertain, US support. Antonio Lettieri
Editor of Insight and President of CISS - Center for International Social Studies (Roma). He was National Secretary of CGIL; Member of ILO Governing Body and Advisor for European policy of Labour Minister. (a.lettieri@insightweb.it) |