The new American policy and Europe

The United States is facing a notable transformation  in its history. Donald Trump has emphasized in many ways the new aspects of his domestic program on one side  and of international policy on the other.

For the domestic policy we have to underline three aspects that change  the national policy: the immigration, the tariffs to protect the national production, the trade policy in relation to different countries.

Domestic policy is, first of all, directed against immigrants, both those arriving and those who do not yet have American citizenship. An exclusion program difficult to implement in a country historically made up of migrants. And, as California shows, from a majority of foreign citizens.

The goal to increase the production of goods of American origin  is linked to increasing tariffs on foreign imports particularly from China and, possibly, from Mexico, Canada and Europe.

The case of car production is an example. It is specifically linked to the reduction of import of car or components mired to strengthen the US production imposing 25 percent ariffs on imported cars or components with the aim of stimulating domestic growth. A radical difficult task considering that many components are imported from abroad on the basis of lower costs.

The transfer of production of goods is aimed at increasing domestic production and employment. A policy that reverses the tradition of a country whose large companies are partially established in countries with lower work force costs. In essence, a radical change in traditional US policy.

International Politics
The new policy does not only concern domestic politics but all the international politics of the new president from Israel and Palestine to China and Europe in relation to Russia.

Israel and Palestine
The Israeli war against the territory of Gaza is not the only case in the history of wars. But this war is characterized by the fact that there is an unarmed population, which has no choice but to abandon their homes. They are mostly elderly women, old men and thousands of children who have had to abandon their homes with no place to go except to the camps in the southern part of Gaza on the border with Egypt.

Forty-eight thousand Palestinians have been killed so far and many more injured. It is, in fact, a war between the most powerful army in the Middle East against an unarmed people.

In any case, Hamas, which represents a large part of the Palestinian people, is not isolated. Many countries recognize its role, from China to Russia, passing through Iran and South Arabia. But the American government of Biden, first, and now of Trump, considers Israel its strongest ally in the Middle East.

China
Trump's policy is different with regard to China who is considered the main adversary of the United States.
China is a country with a global economy and important international alliances that include Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa amongst many other countries. And, under the presidency of XI-Jinping, China has also established an important alliance with Saudi Arabia and Iran.

In other words, the conflict between the United States and China is becoming central in many respects and with an uncertain evolution at a global level.

Europe and Russia
In this context, the major aspect, in many ways unexpected, concerns the new American policy regarding Russia. In many ways an unexpected change of American foreign policy that also entails a profound change in relations between the United States and Europe.

In any case, there are some aspects of the European policy that deserve to be considered.

In the autumn of 2021 Germany, under the leadership of Angela Merkel, established, in a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, an important agreement between Germany and Russia. It allowed the opening of the second gas pipeline to Germany and to other European countries. And also facilitated other aspects of trade policy. In essence, a settlement that strengthened relations between Germany, the most important western European country, and Russia. An important event for the European countries after years of strained relationships,

But it was an agreement that was in contrast with the policy of the United States that considered Russia the main adversary in international policy. A policy in clear contrast with the current European policy supporting Ukraine against Russia – a position strongly supported by Ursula Von der Leyen head of the European Commission.

At the same time, under the leadership of Olaf Sholz, Germany had returned to a policy based on collaborative relations with the United States. In essence, a position that excluded the friendly relationships with Russia established by Angela Merkel.

Europe and Ukraine
The risk of the current European policy in support of Ukraine is a conflict with Russia without American support.  Looking at France, Germany and Italy, although countries in different political positions, confirms the risks that Europe faces.

In France, Emmanuel Macron's presidency could last until autumn 2027. But it is a country without an effective political majority, while the different opposition parties have grown in the last elections.

A  Paris court found Marine Le Pen (and other eight members of  National Rally) guilty of embezzlement of public  funds putting Le Pen  ineligible for five years gjeopardizing her candidacy in 2027. The sentence could lead to a problem for the Party if confirmed at the higher levels of the judiciary. In this case the lead of the Party should be assumed by the young Bardella, already candidate to lead the government.

But the condemn could also be considered a reflection of the political conflict between the far-right opposition and the government with the absolution of Le Pen. In this case Le Pen could be candidate for the presidency of the Republic strengthening  the Party. In any case, a circumstance that confirms France's political problems and its uncertain future.

Germany, after the early resignation of Scholz, has a new government led by Friedrich Merz of CDU-CSU with a majority of about 29 percent of the Chamber representants. While the Social Democratic Party has had the worst result in its post-war history with about 16 percent of the votes.

Merz aims to form a government that could change the Constitution that imposes a strict limit on the public debt. An objective that i calls for a majority of two third of the Parliament - only possible with the participation of the Greens.

In any case, a government in stark contrast to the far-right Alternative for Germany, which doubled its votes, with about 20 percent of the electorate. At the same time, the left-wing party Die Link obtained, contrary to predictions, about nine percent of the votes.

 It has to be added that, the new party "Alliance", created at the beginning of 2024 ly Sahra Wagenknecht - coming from the direction of Link – has obtained in the recent elections a result close to 5 percent- insufficient to have a presence in the national Parliament - but with previous important results in the recent elections of the federal states of Thuringia and Saxony, and in the i region that includes Berlin.

 It means that a new traditional government coalition is possible. But a week coalition if formed by the two Christian parties along with the week Socialist party. In other words, an uncertain  future of German foreign policy.

We must add that the Italian government, led by Giorgia Meloni, is generally in agreement with the new US government of Trump. Signifying the possibility of holding a different position towards Ukraine with respect to other European countries and the Italian policy of recent years. A policy more aligned to that of the US.

In summary, European politics is substantially divided in front of the new American policy toward the conflict with Russia. Europe – or some European  countries risk to be alone – while the US new policy determined to look to other parts of the world is fundamentally  not interested in the European policy. In this context, NATO is lost its importance. Russia can be an allied in the new world configuration

.As we have seen  Europe is only apparently united. In effect, it is divided in the current deeply changing world, being linked to the  conflict with Russia without, or with uncertain, US support.