The refusal of Saudi Arabia to accept the Seat of Non Permanent Member  of the Security Council of the United Nations , and the strong opposition of France  to lifting the  Iran’s embargo   are the  clear  signals  of the  changing the relationships  among   the USA,   Europe,  the Middle East, and the Arab World.  The Iraq war, and its tragic conclusion had already compelled everybody in the West to review their foreign policies , which had developed up to then  on quite  simple lines.Their political and economic relationships, their reciprocal  trading, and even  their  “reserved information ”, continued not withstanding some ruptures, or  were re-established  according to the old procedures.

The fall of the Persian Regime and the establishment  of a religious dictatorship in Iran   got a   strong American reaction,  but , at the end , everything continued as before : the demise  of Reza Pahlavi  had suspended the ambitious nuclear program  considered by Israel  with  great fear  ,  even after that the  Israeli scientists  were invited  to participate  to its development   and  to its  abandon.The change in Iran was   basically   considered   benignly   by all Western Countries, but the repercussion on the near Iraq was not really considered The Ayatollah   could live well on Iran’s oil production, and if the Persian ladies had to wear a chador,  that would increase the textile production. The law on the new garments was a great gift to China and India, which sold to Iran  a huge amount of garments , both of great quality and  cheap ,  all absolutely black.

The change came from Iraq. The October 1980, Saddam Houssein   started the war with Iran. Surprising and initially under evaluated, the war was immediately saluted by the arms  traders  as a new and important opportunity to make money, while the great powers , showing a great  lack of insight ,   did not evaluate  the terrible consequences ,  which  are still  visible today.Sadam  Houssein   was sure  the   USA would support him , as they were clearly  hostile  to the Ayatollahs  , but that did not  happen. For the whole eight years of duration of the war, Israel   visibly supported  Iran .  When the boss of   Bagdad  started sending missiles to Israel , he simply signed for  his death. Isolated in the Arab World, not considered by the USA , and even by Europe , his dream of  leadership in the Arab World    was defeated by  sides . The reasons   that moved the American President Bush son to attack Iraq are not really known, and perhaps will never be.  The doubt remains that perhaps the USA started the most cruel, senseless and  costly  war in the third millennium   for somebody else.

The horror could have been repeated now, although in a smaller way , and with different partners , if the USA and Europe  had  fallen in the Syrian trap. The strong opposition of Russia, the common sense of the American President, effectively avoided a conflict that   Saudi Arabia and France had decided to start. The reason for the new bellicosity of France   in the Arab World, and in the Middle East,  may be various and  different , still somewhat confused,   and in any case to be  checked, as normally happens  for the Arab world   which    is always  in a balance with tribal wars, economic wars  in , and  religiously inspired violence. In any case it is quite evident that in these last years ,  France has suddenly raised her voice  in the politics of that region in a way  that had  already  been visible  in the Eighties  , with the  Chad war  against Gadhafi.

Gadhafi  was  finally killed with similar results  , but certainly  easily than with the disposal  of Sadam Houssein. Paris would have liked  to continue his activity  against   Syria , which  disturbed the French position in Lebanon, and , above all, is clearly hated by Saudi Arabia. After the failure of the international mission against Damascus, Holland’s France  has continued its mission against Iran,  the main allied of  Syria ,  and a  dead enemy of Saudi Arabia. The reason was offered by the USA  proposal  to cancel the embargo against Iran  if it did   renounce     nuclear development , and  accept   the control of the International Agencies. Obviously, the end of the embargo  against Teheran  was seen as a danger  by Jerusalem ,  and  Prime Minister Natanieu  immediately  sent   an appeal  to all the allies of the USA  in order that  they should oppose a treaty , which was, in his eyes , an intolerable menace against Israel. 
After   the long absence of the Italian  foreign policy  in these last decades,  Italy came back into play  first against the war  in Syria ,  with good motives badly expressed ,  the an agreement with Iran , with a way of  doing that  has irritated   everybody in the Obama administration.

Immediately before the Geneva  conference,   Washington was in a delicate situation , as France was menacing to  distance herself  from NATO ,  renouncing in fact   the  2009 agreements signed by Sarkozy   and going back to the  nationalist position of De Gaulle , with Saudi Arabia the stronger friend of the USA , and above all with Israel   more and more critical towards the  Washington policy , and  the Democratic President. At this point , it’s easy to   suppose that  the times are not  mature for an agreement , and things will remain as they are ,  showing again  the emptiness of a  Geneve Conference, overrun by  events  , and as a pretext to avoid any conclusion without irritating anybody.  
This seems to be the line   recently adopted by the USA. Arriving in Abu Dhabi , the America State Secretary, John Kerry  has  taken  a line that many observes understand as  a prudent  retreat  . “The group of five plus one members of the Security Council – he said  the eleven of  November ,–  had met  to present our proposals to  the Iranians . In this moment , Iran   could not accept them.”

Teheran has not answered. Perhaps the Chinese are right .Let’s talk business,  to reciprocal  economic  and commercial agreements. The rest is not relevant.