The new American policy and Europe

The outcome of the American elections with the victory of Donald Trump was among the possibilities, but the extent of his victory exceeded expectations. Trump's program fully expresses the politics of the American right. There is no doubt about its peculiarity. Presidents, once retired, do not run for new elections. Trump, on the contrary, has emphasized in many ways relevant aspects of his political program, and has been re-elected.

His policy is directed against immigrants, both those arriving and those who do not yet have American citizenship. An exclusion program difficult to implement in a country historically composed of migrants. And, as California shows, from a majority of foreign citizens. 

The second important aspect of his program concerns taxes with their reduction in favor of the less wealthy classes. The goal is to increase the production of goods of American origin. But the advantage would be cancelled by the increase in the cost of imports particularly from China, and also from Mexico, Canada and Europe.

International policy
The new policy doesn’t concern only domestic policy. Israel, Chine and Russia will be at the center of the international policy.

Israel  and Palestine
The United States, under the presidency of Biden, while recommending an end to hostilities, supported the Israeli aggression. Along with nearly three years of occupation by the Israeli army against an unarmed country of over two million citizens, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians lost their homes and often their families, especially children and the elderly. Palestinian people had to take refuge in tents in camps in southern Gaza, on the border with Egypt.  

Biden, while recommending an end to hostilities, had supported Israeli aggression. Trump did more. with Gaza peninsula now occupied, proposed that the Palestinians abandon their land to move to Egypt and Jordan. But the two states refused to be complicit in the dispersion of a population forced to abandon their

This is the framework in which the new US government declares its support for Israel, the most armed country in the Middle East, against the unarmed population of Gaza territory.

China
Trump's policy is different with regard to China considered the main adversary of the United States. A not easy task. China is a country with a global economy and important international alliances that include Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa as well as many other countries from different continents. And, under the presidency of XI-Jinping, China has also established an important alliance with Saudi Arabia and Iran.

In other words, the conflict between the United States and China is becoming central in many respects and with an uncertain evolution at a global level.

Europe and Russia
In this context, the greatest novelty, in many ways unexpected, concerns the new American policy towards Russia. A novelty that entails a profound change in relations between the United States and Europe. In many ways an unexpected novelty of American foreign policy.

In any case, there are some aspects of the European policy that deserve to be remembered. In the autumn of 2021 Germany, under the leadership of Angela Merkel, established, in a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, an agreement between Germany and Russia. The meeting allowed the opening of the second gas pipeline to Germany and to other European countries. An agreement that also facilitated other aspects of trade policy. In essence, a settlement that strengthened relations between Germany, the most important western European country, and Russia.

But it was an agreement that contrasted the policy of the United States that considered Russia the main adversary in international politics. The European agreement did not have a long life.

For new Trump presidency the effective adversary is China not Russia. A policy in clear contrast with the current European policy supporting Ukraine against Russia – a policy  strongly supported by Ursula von der Leyen head of the European Commission.

At the same time, under the leadership of Olaf Sholz Germany returned to a policy based on collaborative relations with the United States. In essence, a position that excluded the friendly relationships with Russia established by Angela Merkel.

European policy
The risk of the current European policy in support of Ukraine is a war against Russia without the American support.  A look at France, Germany and Italy, although

countries in different political positions, confirms the risks that Europe faces.
In France, Emmanuel Macron's presidency could last until autumn 2027. But it is a country without an effective political majority, while the different opposition parties have grown in the last elections. In essence, a country with a minority government - possibly with the support of Great Britain - in the clash with Russia.

Germany, after the early resignation of Scholz, has a new government led by Friedrich Merz of CDU-CSU with a majority of about 29 percent of the Chamber representants. While the Social Democratic Party has had the worst result in its post-war history with about 16 percent of the votes.

In any case, Merz aims to form a government that could change the Constitution that imposes a strict limit to the public debt. An objective that imposes a majority of two third of the Parliament -  only possible with  the participation of the Greens.

In any case, a government including parties that are not part of the possible majority  that should imply non only the participation of the  Socialist party but also of the Greens , member of the possible  government majority that are contrasted by Bavarian majority alliance Party.

In any case a government in stark contrast to the far-right Alternative for Germany, which doubled its votes, with about 20 percent of the electorate. At the same time, the left-wing party Die Link obtained, contrary to predictions, about nine percent of the votes. It has to be added that, the new party "Alliance", created at the beginning of 2024 ly Sahra Wagenknecht - coming from the direction of Link – has obtained in the recent elections a result close to 5 percent- insufficient to have a presence in the national Parliament, but  having obtained important results in the recent elections of the federal states of Thuringia and Saxony and in the i region that includes Berlin.

It means that a new government coalition is possible. But a week coalition if formed by the two Christian parties along with the week Socialist party – in any case for the first time a coalition with a different international position toward the Russian ny and its allied in Bavaria in a uncertain coalition against a strong opposition with regard to international policy regarding the future of Europe and the relation with Russia. In other words, an uncertain future of German foreign policy.

We must add that the government policy in Italy, the third European country, is uncertain. After having been close to the alliance of Ukraine against Russia, the current Italian government led by Giorgia Meloni .is changing position in the direction of the new American policy.

In summary, European politics is uncertain and substantially divided. Its apparent alignment against the new American policy in favor of recognizing Russia's positions is a  framework in which Europe risks being alone in a deeply changing world. A Europe divided  and uncertain about its future.