The changes in American politics after the elections last January will In many ways affect Europe.
The outcome of the American elections with the victory of Donald Trump was among the possibilities, but the extent of his victory exceeded expectations. Trump's program fully expresses the politics of the American right. There is no doubt about its peculiarity. Presidents, once retired, do not run for new elections. Trump, on the contrary, has emphasized in many ways relevant aspects of his political program, and has been re-elected.
His policy is directed against immigrants, both those arriving and those who do not yet have American citizenship. An exclusion program difficult to implement in a country historically composed of migrants. But it is a main aspect of his policy The second important aspect of his program concerns taxes with their reduction in favor of the less wealthy classes. But the advantage would be canceled by the increase in the cost of imports in particular from China, but also from Mexico, Canada and Europe. The goal is to increase the production of goods of American origin. A goal that appears difficult to achieve and that causes the increase in prices.
International politics
The main novelty, however, is in foreign policy. For the new administration, Israeli policy against Palestine remains a fundamental objective. But so was the substantial American policy under the Biden presidency. The center of American policy remains the position towards China considered the main adversary of the United States at a global level. In this context, the greatest novelty, in many ways unexpected, concerns the new American policy towards Russia. Not Russia, but China has become the main adversary country. A novelty that entails a profound change in relations between the United States and Europe. In many ways the greatest and unexpected novelty of American foreign policy. This is undoubtedly a radical change compared to current American policy. European.
But with some aspects that deserve to be remembered. It was the autumn of 2021 when Germany, under the leadership of Angela Merkel, established in Moscow in a meeting with Vladimir Putin an agreement on the opening of the second gas pipeline to Germany and, in part, to other European countries. An agreement that also facilitated other aspects of trade policy. In essence, an agreement that in many ways established new relations between Europe and Russia.
But it was also an agreement in contrast with the policy of the United States that considered Russia the main adversary in international politics. The agreement did not have a long life. For new Trump presidency the effective adversary is China not Russia. A policy in clear contrast with the current European policy - also supported by the leader of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen - in favor of Ukraine.
With the change of government under the leadership of Olaf Sholz, head of the German Social Democracy, after Merkel's long sixteen-year Chancellorship, Germany returned to a policy based on collaborative relations with the United States. In essence, relations that excluded, beyond the supply of gas, collaborative relations that reflected in the whole of European politics given economic and political importance of Germany.
With the arrival of Trump, American policy towards Russia has changed again. The center of American politics is no longer Ukraine and the war that has been going on for over three years. China, not Russia, is considered the main adversary. A position in contrast with current European policy in favor of Ukraine. What will European policy be in this new framework of international relations?
European policy
The risk of the current European policy in support of Ukraine is a war against Russia without the American support. A look at France, Germany and Italy, although countries in different political positions, confirms the risks that Europe faces in the new international framework.
In France, Emmanuel Macron's presidency can last until autumn 2027. But it is a country without an effective political majority, while the various opposition parties have grown in the last elections. In essence, a country with a minority government - possibly with the support of Great Britain - in the clash with Russia which already controls four regions of Ukraine, in addition to Crimea.
Germany, after the early resignation of Scholz, has a new government led by Friedrich Merz of CDU-CSU with a majority of about 28 percent of the Chamber representants. The Social Democratic Party has had in the recent elections the worst result in its post-war history, since 1948, with about 16 percent of the votes. A result in stark contrast to the far-right Alternative for Germany, which doubled its votes, with about 20 percent of the electorate. At the same time, the left-wing party Die Link obtained, contrary to predictions, about 8 (or nine) percent of the votes. In turn, the new party "Alliance", created at the beginning of 2024, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, coming from the direction of Link, obtained a result close to 5 percent. A result Insufficient at national level to have a presence in the national Parliament, but having already obtained important results in the recent elections of the federal states of Thuringia and Saxony as well as in the elections in the region including e Berlin.
For the first time in post-war history, the parties outside the government have had the consensus of about a third of the votes cast at the national level. In other words, an uncertain future of German politics after decades of alternating government coalitions.
We must add that the government policy in Italy, the third European country in terms of population, is uncertain. After having been close to the alliance of Ukraine against Russia, the current Italian government led by Giotgia Meloni .is changing position in the direction of the new American policy.
In summary, European politics is uncertain and substantially divided. Its alignment against the American policy in favor of recognizing Russia's positions is framework in which Europe risks being alone in a deeply changing world, divided, and uncertain about its future.