United States and Europe in a changing world

The outcome of the American elections with Donald Trump's victory indicates a shift in American policy both nationally and internationally. Trump was seen as an alternative candidate to the American political establishment. There is no doubt about the uniqueness of his personality.  Former presidents (and Trump had already been president) do not run for re-election once they leave the White House.

After the victory, Trump emphasized particular aspects of his agenda. On one hand, a policy directly against immigrants, both those arriving and those already in the United States but not holding American citizenship. An exclusionary program in a country historically made up of migrants. And, as California shows, from a majority of foreign citizens. 

Israel  and Palestine
But the new policy doesn’t concern only domestic policy.
Trump's policy has a particular international relevance as policy toward Israel shows. After 15 months of aggression by the Israeli army against an unarmed country of over two million citizens, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have lost their homes and, very often, their families, especially children and the elderly. In essence, a war of a military power without real adversaries. Palestinians had to abandon their homes to take refuge in tents in the camps in southern Gaza, on the border with Egypt.    

The United States, under the presidency of Biden, while recommending an end to hostilities, had supported the Israeli aggression. Trump did more. He proposed that the Palestinians abandon their land and move permanently to Egypt and Jordan. But the two states refused to be complicit in the dispersal of the people of the Gaza Strip constrained to abandon their homes.  

This is the framework in which the new US government declares its support for Israel, the most armed country in the Middle East, against an unarmed population.

China
Trump's policy is different with regard to China considered the main adversary of the United States. The first attempt is to reduce imports by increasing taxes. But China has menaced do the same with regard to important American exports in the most advanced Chinese sectors.

In any case, China is a country with a vast and global economy. And with important international alliances that include Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa as well as many other countries from different continents that have declared themselves in favor of China.

Under the presidency of XI-Jinping, China has also established an important alliance with Saudi Arabia and Iran - two countries at odds until recently. In essence, a framework in which the United States can consider China the main adversary from an economic and international relations, but a country with important international relations.

Europe and Russia
 In Trump's new American policy, a European war against Russia has lost importance. And NATO, established in the middle of the last century by Western countries against the Soviet Union, has lost its relevance given that it is based on the refusal to recognize the historic differences.     

Differences that are not a novelty in Europe. It is enough to remember the internal differences in Spain and Belgium, where different languages and historical specificities are recognized. But for the European Commission and other European countries, the war against Russia is the most important commitment. In fact, a commitment without a perspective.
The governments of France and Germany, the two main European countries, are in crisis.  

In France, Emmanuel Macron is unable to form a government. The new interim government does not have the majority to pass the 2024 budget. In other circumstances, the president who appointed the government would have resigned.   

It can be remembered that the government of Charles de Gaulle, at the end of the sixties, had called a referendum on his policy. The outcome was negative and de Gaulle, although twice at the head of France, abandoned the presidency of the Republic. Macron, although defeated, said he would hold the presidency until the fall of 2027.

Meanwhile, the French crisis remains. Economic growth has been last year less than 1 percent. In  international politics, the opposition parties that control the majority in Parliament are, in different ways, opposed to the war against Russia.

In Germany, the minority government led by Social Democrat Chancellor Scholz has resigned and elections will be held on the 23rd February.      

It is useful to remember that Angela Merkel's government lasted 16 years and, perhaps, she would have been re-elected if she had not withdrawn. And She had established alliance with Vladimir Putin with whom, among other things, she had confirmed the opening of the second gas pipeline which, passing under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, was supposed to supply natural gas not only to Germany but also to other countries of Western Europe.    

In the new framework, it is not clear what German policy will be after next elections. According to forecasts, the far-right Alternative for Germany Party could win about 20 percent of the vote. The Christian Democratic Union, CDU, led by Fredrich Merz, could obtain about 30 percent of the votes. The Social Democratic Party, under Scholz's leadership, would be the third party with more or less 15 percent of the vote. In other term, the defeat of the Social- democrat Party which has directed the government.    

But that wouldn't be the only new thing about the elections. What's new is that the "Alliance" led by Sahra Wagenknecht obtained important electoral results in the states of Thuringia and Saxony and in the elections that included Berlin. She founded the new party after abandoning Die Linke, the left Party of which she was one of the leaders. And the new party is in favor of an agreement with Russia.

Italy
In this scenario, Giorgia Meloni was the only European head of government to attend the celebration of Trump's presidency, whom she had already met in his private residence of Mar-a-Lago at the beginning of January. The meeting was  focused on the Italian journalist detained in Tehran. But it was also the occasion  for meeting and on the Italian position towards Ukraine. An occasion that was followed by a meeting with Elon Musk, one of Trump's main supporters, interested in the European future and his position toward Russia.   

They were not secondary meeting. Italy could be the country that, with the current government, confirms its relations with the United States, in a position that distinguishes it from the European Commission.  Summing up, the future of Europe presents an uncertain picture in its major countries, from France to Germany and Italy.   

For the United States, politics has its center in the Pacific and Indian oceans as well  as in relations with Israel. In the new context, the European position plays a secondary role. Europe must decide its future with the international framework in mind. Ignoring it, or pretending to ignore him, leads to his marginalization in the changed international politics.