France and Germany in the new international context

The beginning of the new year coincides with major political changes. The most important is in the United States with the rise to the presidency of Donald Trump.  The unexpected and important novelty is the new, unexpected regime in Syria after more than 50 years of authoritarian rule, mass emigration, wars and substantial isolation.
In this new global framework, Europe is showing its economic weakness and its uncertainty in international politics. A fragility that manifests itself first and foremost in the condition of France and Germany - the two countries that have dominated European politics for over half a century.

France
In France, Emmanuel Macron dissolved the government without knowing what the alternative might be.
A new government would lack a majority. Marine Le Pen will face a trial in March that could result in a five-year prison sentence. Hier goal is to anticipate that deadline, placing herself in  opposition in the belief that she can increase the consensus that already makes it the first opposition party.

But for the premier Macron , the first hypothesis was the support of the Socialist Party. But the leftwing party has set as a condition the abolition of paragraph 3 of Article 49 of the Constitution. In other words, a radical change to the current Constitution that allows the President of the Republic to dissolve Parliament by calling new elections if the parliamentary majority approves a bill that is contrary to his position. So, the socialist party has retired his offer.

According to European rules, France would have to reduce public spending by 60 billion euros. Otherwise, he would incur sanctions from the European Commission. But this position is unacceptable for the leftwing partis .France has already reduced public spending and  economic growth is less than 1 percent, while unemployment and marginal work are increasing.

These are the circumstances in which Macron chose François Bayrou as prime minister, a right-wing exponent who had an old ambition to lead the government. But it would be a government without a majority – a circumstance similar to the one that caused the government crisis. For the moment there is no solution for the French government crisis.

German forecast

The case of Germany is different but equally uncertain. It has been more than 70 years since Adenauer took over the government. The changes have not been without repercussions on the state of European politics, but the Franco-German position has remained fundamentally stable. Today this is no longer the case.

 The government led by Olaf Scholz of the Socialist party (SPD) has been voted out of office and new elections are set for February 27. German far-right parties are experiencing strong growth, as the recent elections have shown: two parties that have been close to victory in two important regions such as Thuringia and Saxony.

At the same time, Sahra Wagenknecht, who abandoned the extreme-l eft party Die Linke, founding the Alliance (BSW),   won 11% of the vote in Saxony, 15.8% in Touringia and, last but not least, 13.5% in the Berlin region. The party stands out by declaring itself in Favor of an agreement with Russia. The result is that for the first time in Germany there is no traditional government majority in some important federal states.

The ambition to isolate Russia, organizing a cordon fromFinland on western Europe to Armenia and Georgia on Azerbaijan's borders on the Caspian Sea, was a way to isolate Russia, an ambitious project. But it failed.

Middle East
The center of the conflict has shifted to the Middle East. Israel, backed by the United States, aims at the substantial liquidation of a Palestinian state in a war that has swept over and largely destroyed Gaza's territory. At the same time, Israel aims to close Israel's northern border to Lebanon.

However, with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the Middle East presents a new, yet unexpected. context. In less than two weeks, the revolutionary forces – led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani – liquidated the dictatorial regime of Assad, who, along with his father, Hafiz al-Assad, dominated Syria for over fifty years. Assad took refuge in Moscow but Russia refused to support his old government.
European policy.
In Europe, economic growth is stalled, fluctuating zero and one percent in the main countries. But the European Commission, with a precarious majority, continues to focus on defeating Russia and including Ukraine.

Uncertain future
It is difficult to predict the future. But for the new American government, which will take office on January 20, Europe is no longer at the center of international politics. And the war against Russia will not be at the center of the new American policy.
In his context Ukraine will not be able to join NATO, an alliance in which the United States under the Trump presidency will have little or no interest, considering it not at the center of international politics.

The condition of Europe is nothing new. If anything, it was when Angela Merkel, in the last months of her chancellorship, met Putin in Moscow, establishing collaborative relations with Russia. A collaboration that, among other things, involved the doubling of the gas pipeline connecting Russia to Germany and part of Western Europe. Merkel's resignation at the end of 2021 coincided with the rupture of relations between Europe, linked to the United States, and Russia.

In essence, the center of international politics is not in Europe, where the large countries, France and Germany, are experiencing, for the first time since the Second World War, a phase of reduction of their economic and political role.
The future of international relations remains uncertain in many respects, but it concerns above all Europe, divided and uncertain as it has never been in recent decades. Recognising the new conditions at global level should be the first objective for European countries. But there is no policy in this direction.