The change of the presidencys will not affect only the United States. In many respects it will affect Europe and the current war with Russia.
The outcome of the American elections with the victory of Donald Trump was a possibility, but the magnitude of his victory has exceeded expectations. This leads us to reconsider American politics both nationally and internationally.
Biden's withdrawal came late, although it was expected. While Kamala Harris' candidature to the presidency turned out to be a weak choice.
The electoral campaign was judged to be the toughest in American history. Trump's program fully expresses the policy of the American right. In his program, Trump emphasizes, on the one hand, a policy aimed at immigrants, both those arriving and those already present but not in possession of American citizenship.
In any case, the majority of California inhabitants, the biggest state in the United States, is composed by foreign citizens > prevalently Mexican and in part from Asia. With an exclusion program in a country historically composed of migrants, the population would have decreased even more. In any case a program difficult, if not impossible, to implement.
The second most important issue is a tax on import elevated until 60 percent for import from Chine . An increase that affects the middle class, foreseeing a reduction for the less well-off and, paradoxically, for the superrich ones. At the same time an increment of 10 percent should also hit the import from Europe. In essence, a reduction in imports to possibly increase domestic production.
International policy
Trump's victory also opens a new phase in international policy. he Trump administration will be close to Israel in the Palestinian conflict. But there is a problem of the relations with Iran, with whom Trump would have difficulties expanding the conflict.
It should also be remembered that there is a recent agreement linking Iran to Saudi Arabia and China. A US war, together with Israel, against Iran could give rise to a more general conflict that the United States does not want to risk.
In any case, the new international policy will have a profound impact on the role of the US. The new government will not be characterized by the severing of relations with Russia. For Trump , in contrast with the current EU position, an open conflict with Russia has to be avoided.
A position that is not entirely new. It is useful remember that at the end of 2021 Angela Merkel, in her last months as German chancellor, had met Put in Moscow and established a vast agreement between the two countries .On that basis Germany and other European countries would have benefited from Russian gas with the opening of the second gas pipeline. But this was a policy considered unacceptable by the American government under President Biden. What followed, instead of the agreement ,has been the war in Ukraine.
It is useful to remember that Ukraine is a composite country for origin of the population and language. Something that is not far away from the European asset, if we consider the case of Spain and Belgium, where population has different histories and languages. Two countries that have found a composition recognizing the language and historic regional differences, but keeping the national unity.
An avoidable war
Taking European examples, the war was avoidable. But now the war is in course. Russia has occupied regions that It will not leave. A new context that needs to be taken into account. But this is not the position of the European commission in Brussels. For the commission the war has to bring to the defeat of Russia. In other words, the continuation of the war.
It is difficult to indicate the future. But a new chapter will be open in a war that has already strength the relations between Russia and Chine, while opening different positions within the European Union. A division masked by the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, in favor of continuing the war in Ukraine. A country - it is right to remember - that is suffering the immense consequences of war with millions of citizens far from their homes and the destruction of a part of the country. Europe, characterized by loss of growth, increasing national debt and growing unemployment, is the major victim of the conflict.
More generally, the United States, under Trump, is not really interested in the European war and the role of NATO. For the new President of the US international policy is fundamentally displaced on Pacific and Indian oceans. In other words, the area of the world that must rethink its policy is precisely Europe. But European countries are divided, and the most significant examples are France and Germany, the two most important European countries.. The future is uncertain, but the European perspective is already changed. It will be useful to take into account the new deeply changed context.
France and Germany
We know that France and Germany, the two pillars of European policy since the 1950s are in crisis. In Germany the government, led by social-democratic Chancellor Scholz is in crisis after the retirement from the majority of neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP). With the election of the end of February Scholz will be the Chancellor with the briefer direction of the German government in the second postwar time.
In France, Emmanuel Macron leads a minority government, Ensemble, after obtaining 163 seats with a centrist and right-wing alliance. The leftwing parties, New Popular Front, is the first electoral coalition with 183 seats. And National Rally, the right-wing coalition, led by Marine Le Pen, 143 seats. In substance, a government of Macron without majority, while the divided opposition has a large majority of representatives. In other words, the two largest nations in Europe, France and Germany, are led by a precarious government, lacking a majority.
The European future cannot be predicted in its particular aspects. But it is clear that new American government points out to a strong autonomy of the United States, avoiding its involvement in current conflicts. It points out to an agreement with Russia along with a solution for the divide Ukraiine. We do not know the ossible outcomes. But it is necessary a different foreign policy approach in relation to the current European policy fondamtally based on the war against Russia.,without an US engagenent. A war that without a compromose, now supported by the US, is directed to be lost by the European Union.