After the Olympics with their merits and defects, France is back in the spotlight for its political role in Europe and, to a certain extent, in world politics.
For the first time, the government of Emmanuel Macron is not only a minority but, at the same time, without a political alternative that preserves its fundamental choices. It was under the guidance of Charles de Gaulle that France found itself at the center of European politics. Then the European Commission, entrusted France with a central role in the European community .
Today the question IS the role that France could play in the foreign policy of the European Union. A role that Macron has tried to fulfil.
The change is significant. France has lost a clear government majority. President Macron can govern until 2027, the end of his second mandate, but cannot make decisions about national politics. A significant reduction of the role of the president of the Republic.
The electoral outcome IS clear. His party’s majority alliance has about 30 percent of the votes in parliament- the worst outcome during his presidency. And there is not a political alternative that can preserve the fundamental choices of his government.
After Charles de Gaulle
Since the time of Charles De Gaulle, France has been at the center of European politics, able to determine its future. At the time, he conditioned the role of the European Commission by entrusting the member countries with a fundamental function of economic and political management. Today, it is not just a question of the national role.
The change is evident. Marine Le Pen's right is the majority party, but cannot take over the government. The four parties of the center-left and the left that won the elections have not the majority to govern.
This is not the first time that the government majority has changed in France. It happened under the presidency of Mitterrand but those changes did not affect the European policy of France in its essential aspects. The presidency of the republic retained a decisive role - today the coalition represents less than 30 percent of the electorate.. A clear novelty in the French history after de Gaulle presidency.
It is the first time that the French domestic framework creates unexpected problems instead of contributing, through its essential role, to lead European politics. In other words, a political change that has occurred in France affects all European policy.
Not only a European problem
France is not the only problem. The German government, formed by three parties has only about 30 percent of parliamentary votes and the parties that compose the majority are deeply divided. The Social Democratic Party of the Chancellor Olaf Scholz has only around 15 percent of the electorate. While the other two parties Free Democratic Party (FDP) and The Greens, that contribute to form the government, are losing votes and deeply divided among them.
It has to be added that, for the first time, the German economy is without growth, with its GDP hovering around zero - or even lower, as in the last months of 2023. A picture that is in stark contrast to the traditional German annual growth of around 8 percent - the highest among capitalist countries.
It is useful to remember that Angela Merkel had been at the head of four consecutive chancellorships, while the current government has not shown it can hold out for a single four-year term. In other words, we can look to a substantial crisis of German government.
It has to be considered that following the 1950s, beginning with Charles de Gaulle, the European community, before, and European Union after have been characterized by the alliance between France and Germany.
Now, in different ways, the crisis affects the two countries. Germany has a public debt not far from the EU limit of 60 per cent of the GDP. France has almost doubled that limit, t reaching 120 percent of the national revenue. In other words, the two countries at the center of the European Union have different but substantial economic and political difficulties.
The global framework
The radical change in the context of the European Union is in turn part of a picture that affects the global scenario. The first issue is the uncertain outcome of the November elections in the United States.
On one side we see Donald Trump who points out to an indefinite change in American domestic, as well as international, policy. He wants to focus on reducing the dollar exchange rate to rebalance the balance of payments. In essence, a reduction in imports from China and a general increase in exports. Not just an economic issue, but also a political one in US international politics.
On the other side, Kamala Harris, continuing with the majority Biden's policy, is for some aspects, more right-wing oriented, in domestic politics - even though open to working on expanding women’s rights. Her international position is unclear. In essence, a policy with undefined forecasts (See on this issue the following Jeff Faux's essay).
At the same time, there is no doubt that, regardless of the future presidency, American international politics must face a phase of profound changes. The future will be is largely determined by politics on the Pacific coast.
China is for many reasons, a dominant power. Its growth is now limited, but its economy is strong at global level with the essential role of the economy, more or less directly regulated by the government which is an important difference with the traditional western economy.
At the same time Russian economy, after the initial difficulties generated by the war in Ukraine, has recorded, at the end of the year, a strong growth of in the economy of greater than 3 percent. A growth, in large measure, due to the commitment of the government in the public sectors. Overcoming the initial difficulties due to the decision to block the two gas pipelines bringing gas to Germany and from there to other European countries. The oil and gas have been redirected principally to China and to a lesser extent India.
The strong growth of India - about 7 percent annually - keeps its behind China, but keeps it in an important economic relationship with Russia.
In other words, we see a redefinition of the economic geography with the Asian economy and expanding its economic relations with Africa and South America, particularly Brazil.
At the same time the US is strengthing its economic dominance with important countries such as the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada.
The uncertain role of Europe
What is the role of Europe? Its role languishes while the domestic economic policy principally is in the hands of the European commission. For the large majority of the 27 countries of the European Union the growth is negatively affected by the European policy.
But this situation is open to deep changes. Germany has, as we have seen, in the middle of an economic crisis. France has it’s own situation It has to be remembered that it has an old tradition of state intervention . And is the only European country to possess nuclear power.
In other words, France could be the initial change to come out of the current failing European economy. This means that Europe, following the French example, could theoretically regain its lost role in the global economy. But this is far from the current general policy directed by the European Commission.
Forecasts are difficult. But it is a fact that policy has changed at a global level and it can also change at European level The next months will show if it is possible to reinvent the failed European policy. The future is uncertain, but also interesting.