Given the evolution of new oil routes and the exit strategy from the various fronts of the war, the United States has significantly reduced its involvement in the Middle East; yet Europe continues to lack of any consistent approach to the new Arabic scenario.
Some years ago, the Middle East and North Africa were relevant mainly for the level and quality of their crude oil production. The Gulf Countries were, and still are , the bigger producers, given the large amount of reserves, but the North Africa was also included, and the full African continent was still promising new discoveries. The USA imported crude oil, and the experts considered with anxiety a situation in which the USA was depending from a source of oil quite far, in another Hemisphere, in an area not particularly quiet, and not very stable.
“Keeping open the oil flows “ was the main preoccupation of the oil and the foreign policy experts. Of course, the fact that the flow of oil from the Middle East to the world’s market and to the USA had continued in all possible situations, included the long Iraq-Iran war was apparently not considered. The attempt of Iraq to enlarge its territory by invading Kuwait was seen as menacing. The answer was first a large International Army, which quickly restored the “status quo”, and then a full-blown war, during which the oil kept of course flowing although with some increase in prices.
In the meantime, a new technology based on “fracking” (braking ) the schist formations to free the particles of oil and gas there included, was developed in the USA, resulting in a strong increase of the internal production in North America. That changed the situation completely. The USA not only reduced the imports of crude oil, but also is becoming a worldwide exporter of oil and oil products, and of natural gas.
The change happened in a moment when the USA was reconsidering its international options, as the meagre results of the Middle East wars were becoming visible. This change means that, now, the USA are not going to guarantee any country, and the main problem that worry the USA in the area is no more the flow of oil, but the potential nuclear development of Iran.
In the meantime, the Arab Spring exploded all over the place, not only in small countries, but also in Libya, Egypt and in Syria, which made the USA increasingly unwilling to take positions in such an uncertain environment. In Libya, the USA took the first, important step, but left to others, especially France, the complete destruction of the Gaddafi’s State, which left the country in a state of chaos. The Arab Spring in Syria took the form of a revolt against the absolute government run by the son of the dead dictator. Syria had a great friend in Russia and also in other Arab countries following the Shia version of the Islam.
The revolt in Syria against the dictatorship of a famed family has redefined every position. The problem was no more to guarantee the oil routes, but to take positions in the Middle East between countries, and, more important, different religions. The Saudi Arabia, the long term allied to USA is the largest area of the orthodox Muslim religion, the Sunny version: while Iran and Syria follow another version of the Islam religion, the Shia, which is dominant also in Iraq, a country where the important population of Sunny denomination is out of the Government, and willing to take up arms against it.
This alignment puts Saudi Arabia in a difficult position. The Syrian regime has always been deadly enemy of the Saudi, but the Saudi taking an active position in the Syria affair brings risk to enter in a war, which is now fought by Al Queda, a group of Sunny, which is working for a revolution, and is the main objective of the America security organisation. That would leave the Saudis in a very difficult position. Moreover, Syria is supported by its long time allied, Russia, which reduced, in a way, the difficult position of the USA in front the strong position take by France, favourable to a direct intervention of Europe and USA against the present, tottering Government of Syria, and considered the American position weak towards the nuclear progress of Iran,
In short, one could conclude that the reduction of the involvement of the USA in the Middle East and the various Arab Springs have created a chaotic situation in the core of the Middle East with the danger of starting a religious war between two different reading of Islam. There is no conclusion in such a situation, which is fundamentally unstable. There are some considerations relative to the position of Europe. If we accept the position of France, no one of the European countries has taken a position.
The Middle East and North Africa are nearer to Europe than to the USA, and the general trade between the two coasts should be an European interest not only as oil importers. However, the country that has taken a leadership in Europe, Germany, has no direct interest in such a difficult situation: it exports all over the world, and particularly to Russia, one of the largest oil producers in the world.
Europe has seen the Arab Spring, as if it was looking at a film, interesting, but not as important to the point of elaborating a policy on such a matter. The absence of Europe in this area moves from the weakness of the countries more directly interested. Italy and Spain, France being apparently more interested in Central Africa. Spain and Italy are in a state of confusion, without the capacity to define a position, or, in any case, present the problem to the other members of Europe.