The uncertain future of Europe

The future cannot be anticipated. But the politics of the President Donald Trump have proved uncertain. Initially, he had tried to subject the different countries to American policy. The operation failed. Trump had to change the scenario against  opposition from the Federal Reserve led first by Jerome Powell and now by Kevin Warsh.

The change corresponds to a radical turning point. The alliance with Russia has been followed by the alliance with China.  Trump went to China followed by a large representative of major American companies.  It was the clear demonstration of the importance that Trump placed in Xi Jinping's meeting.

The turning point of the US had a clear sign after the meeting between Angela Merkel and Putin in the Kremlin at the end of 2021. Then there was an important accord. Germany would have granted the opening of the second pipeline that would have supplied gas to Germany and, in part, to other European countries. But the agreement between Germany and Russia had not been long-lived.

As we Know, the agreement with Russia was cancelled on the initiative of the United States under the presidency of Biden. Russia strengthened the agreement with China. It is useful to remember that China established the agreement with India, whose president went to China to meet President Xi Jinping.

It was not the only advantage for the United States. It had taken control of most of Latin America along with Venezuela. But the president of Brazil  Lula ( Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva) maintained the independence of Brazil with more than 2 hundred million of inhabitants - the largest of the Latin American countries, reserving a dubious agreement with the United States. While opening relations with Russia and China. I other terms a great change in the world asset.

A radical change

It was not clear the position of the US in relation to Iran. The new president of Iran,  Khamenei, is in favour of the confrontation with the US. It has to be added that Iran has not been defeated in the past millennia. On the other side the US has lost the war in Vietnam and recently in Afghanistan.  At the beginning US was convinced that Iran could be defeated. It is not happened. Iran attached countries that were with the United States.  We cannot anticipate the future.  But the war the US had imagined could  defeat Iran has failed. It has to be added that there will be the elections next November in the US and Trump does not want that they coincide with a war with Iran.

The support of US tr Israel is essentially unlimited. The arrack against the Palestinian governments in Gaza has seen the move away of Palestinian people to the improvised camps in the south of the Strip. In the new allocation hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have nothing to eat, as the arrival of goods from neighbouring countries is uncertain.  About seventy thousand Palestinians had been killed by the Israeli army. And a  part of children had remained without parents. The attack was extended to northern territories of Israel in Lebanon.

In essence, the Palestinian question has still open. We can remember the exception of President Yitzhak Rabin of the Labour Party, awarded of the Nobel Peace Prize, assassinated from a killer of the Israel right on 4th November 1994. His successor, after a few times, Netanyahu who governs today.

A trip in Israel

I remember my travel along with my friend Renato Lattes in the occupied territory of Israel. We were guests of a family head of the resistance. On the travel to come back with a Palestinian friend we were stopped by an armed group of Israelian from the hay of a palace in the central square. They wanted the name of the family who had been our guest. We could not accept and remained much time in the night before returning to Jerusalem.

But there is a most important occasion. I remember that Lula had been guest of my family in Rome.  He explained its position on Brazil. It was of extraordinary importance to listen what was the condition of the country from the leader of the opposition. We know that he is i again head of Brazil.

European future

The future cannot be anticipated but some aspects are evident. European countries, under the direction of the European Commission directed by Von deer Leyen is divided . Different countries have different policies .

Emmanuel Macron leader of French government, supported by a parliamentary minority, will last until the spring of next year. After the next election, the majority will pass to the rightwing party led d by Marine le Pen - who has been liberated by the French tribunal by the accuses of the European Commission -and has taken in France about  35 percent of votes.  If she will head France she will nominate the young Jordan Bardell- with a family of Torino's origins – head of the government. 

Germany has a government directed by Friedrich Merz with currently only 24 percent of votes, while the allied social democratic party has reduced its consistency to about 16 percent - he minimum in its history. The novelty is Alternative for Germany (AFD), directed by Tino Chrupalla  and Alice Weidel, ,particularly strong in the eastern country, and now also in the northern region  of Saxony-Anhalt’s State. It is the second party with more than 20 percent of votes . In other terms ,in the next future it can be the major German party with a different foreign policy.

Britain has changed the government directed by Keir Starner after less than two years. The new government will be directed by Andy Burnham. The novelty is that each region will have a government in relation to the majority of voters. In other terms  Britain will have different political direction in the different regions.

But the major and growing party is the Reform UK party who has as leader Nigel Farage, who, according to the prevision, will win the next national election. In other terms Britain will see a different government as it has happened in the past years. If this is the case, the announced victory of the opposition party will change the foreign British policy

It has to be added that Italian government continue to be in favour of the US even though having had problem with Trump. In any case, it is a governement  with a different positions in relation to European Commission. In other terms Europe will be divided. It is a fact the relative detachment of the major counties from the asset of the last years. I it will be  a new asset of Europe and, for many aspects, of the world.