The outcome of the American elections with the victory of Donald Trump was a possibility, but the magnitude of his victory has exceeded expectations. This leads us to reconsider American politics both nationally and internationally.

Biden's withdrawal came late, although it was expected. While Kamala Harris' candidature to the presidency turned out to be a weak choice.

The electoral campaign was judged to be the toughest in American history. Trump's program fully expresses the policy of the American right. In his program, Trump emphasizes, on the one hand, a policy aimed at immigrants, both those arriving and those already present but not yet in possession of Amshould also erican citizenship.

 An exclusion program difficult to implement in a country historically composed of migrants. The American population would have decreased even more. In any case  a program difficult, if not impossible, to implement.

The second most important issue is a tax on import elevated until 60 percent for import from Chine . An increase that affects the middle class, foreseeing a reduction for the less well-off and, paradoxically, for the superrich ones. At the same time an increment  of 10 percent should also hit the import from Europe. In essence, a reduction in imports to possibly increase domestic production.

International policy

Trump's victory also opens a new phase in international policy. he Trump administration will be close to Israel in the Palestinian conflict. But  there is a problem of the relations with Iran with whom Trump would have difficulties , in an expansion of the conflict. It should also be remembered that there is a recent agreement linking Iran to Saudi Arabia and China. A US war together with Israel against Iran could give rise to a more general conflict that the United States does not want to risk.

In any case, the new international policy will have a profound impact on the role of the US in the international policy. The new government will not be characterized by the severing of relations with Russia. For Trump , in contrast with the current EU position, an open  conflict with Russia has to be avoided.

A position that is not entirely new. It is useful remember  that at the end of 2021 Angela Merkel, in her last months as German chancellor, had met Put in Moscow and established a vast agreement between the two countries .On that basis Germany and other European countries would have benefited from Russian gas with the opening of the second gas pipeline. But this was a policy considered unacceptable by the American government under President Biden. What followed, instead of the agreement ,has been the war in Ukraine.

It is useful to remember that Ukraine is a composite country for origin of the population and language. Something that is not far away from the European policy, if we consider the case of Spain and Belgium, two countries with populations with different histories and languages. But, at the same time, keeping their national unity. Two cases that have found a composition recognizing the language and historic regional differences but keeping the national unity.

Taking European examples, the war was avoidable. But now the war is in course. Russia has occupied regions that It will not abandon. This is a new context that needs to be taken into account.

But this is not the position of the European commission in Brussels.  For the commission the war has to bring to the defeat of Russia. It only means the continuation of the war.

It is difficult to indicate the future but a new chapter will be open in a war that has already changed Russian and European policy, strengthening the relations between Russia and Chine, and open different position within the European Union. An European division masked by the European Commission led by  Ursula von der Leyen in favor of continuing the war.

A country - it is right to remember - that is suffering the immense consequences of war with millions of citizens far from their homes and the destruction of a part of the country.

In the meanwhile, Europe, characterized by loss of growth, increasing national debt  and growing unemployment, is the major victim of the conflict.

More generally, the United States, under Trump, is not really interested in the European war and the role of NATO. For the new President of the US international policy is fundamentally displaced on Pacific and Indian oceans. In other words, the area of the world that must rethink its policy is precisely Europe. But European countries are divided, as we have seen with the examples of France and Germany. The future is uncertain, but the European perspective is already changed. It will be useful to take into account the new deeply changed context.

France  and Germany

We know that France and Germany, the two pillars of European politics since the 1950s are in crisis. In Germany  the government, led by social-democratic Chancellor Scholz is in crisis after the retirement from the majority of neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP). With the imminent new election Scholz will be the Chancellor with the briefer direction of the German government in the second postwar time.

In France  Emmanuel Macron leads a minority government after gaining with a centist and rightwing alliance, Ensamble, 163 seats. The leftwing parties, New Popular Front, being the first electoral coalition with 183 seats. And National Rally, the right-wing coalition, led by Marine Le Pen 143 seats.  In substance, a government of Macron without majority, while the divided opposition has a large majority of representatives. In other words, the two largest nations of Europe, France and Germany, are subjected to a precarious government, deprived of the majority.
The European future cannot be predicted in its particular aspects. But it is evident that Trump's presidency will have an essential role in the future of the European Union.  He is changing the Us relations with Russia and considering Chine same as the effective powerful adversary.

In summary, it seems that the new Trump administration is aiming for a right-wing domestic policy and at the same time a strong autonomy of the United States avoiding its involvement in possible conflicts. We do not know if this will be a new concrete American policy. But it is a different approach of the foreign policy that is necessary to follow from the international as well as from the European point of view.