Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:163:\"Lost connection to MySQL server during query\nquery: SELECT data, created, headers, expire, serialized FROM cache_content WHERE cid = 'fieldgroup_data:en'\";s:5:\"%file\";s:54:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/cache.inc\";s:5:\"%line\";i:27;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:89:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SELECT * FROM content_group ORDER BY weight, group_name\";s:5:\"%file\";s:94:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/sites/all/modules/cck/modules/fieldgroup/fieldgroup.module\";s:5:\"%line\";i:231;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:271:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: UPDATE cache_content SET data = 'a:2:{s:6:\\"groups\\";a:0:{}s:13:\\"groups_sorted\\";a:0:{}}', created = 1723684060, expire = 0, headers = '', serialized = 1 WHERE cid = 'fieldgroup_data:en'\";s:5:\"%file\";s:54:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/cache.inc\";s:5:\"%line\";i:112;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:85:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SELECT * FROM system WHERE type = 'theme'\";s:5:\"%file\";s:54:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/theme.inc\";s:5:\"%line\";i:483;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:134:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SELECT data, created, headers, expire, serialized FROM cache WHERE cid = 'theme_registry:'\";s:5:\"%file\";s:54:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/cache.inc\";s:5:\"%line\";i:27;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:80:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SHOW TABLES LIKE 'date_format_types'\";s:5:\"%file\";s:63:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc\";s:5:\"%line\";i:356;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:137:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SELECT data, created, headers, expire, serialized FROM cache WHERE cid = 'imagecache:presets'\";s:5:\"%file\";s:54:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/cache.inc\";s:5:\"%line\";i:27;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:85:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SELECT * FROM imagecache_preset ORDER BY presetname\";s:5:\"%file\";s:82:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/sites/all/modules/imagecache/imagecache.module\";s:5:\"%line\";i:994;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:733:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: UPDATE cache SET data = 'a:1:{s:19:\\"AttachmentThumbnail\\";a:4:{s:10:\\"presetname\\";s:19:\\"AttachmentThumbnail\\";s:7:\\"actions\\";a:1:{i:0;a:4:{s:6:\\"weight\\";s:1:\\"0\\";s:6:\\"module\\";s:10:\\"imagecache\\";s:6:\\"action\\";s:25:\\"imagecache_scale_and_crop\\";s:4:\\"data\\";a:3:{s:5:\\"width\\";i:60;s:6:\\"height\\";i:60;s:7:\\"upscale\\";i:1;}}}s:7:\\"storage\\& in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:218958:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: UPDATE cache SET data = 'a:359:{s:29:\\"itweak_upload_upload_form_new\\";a:7:{s:9:\\"arguments\\";a:1:{s:4:\\"form\\";N;}s:8:\\"function\\";s:29:\\"itweak_upload_upload_form_new\\";s:4:\\"type\\";s:6:\\"module\\";s:10:\\"theme path\\";s:31:\\"sites/all/modules/itweak_upload\\";s:13:\\"include files\\";a:0:{}s:11:\\"theme paths\\";a:1:{i:0;s:31:\\"sites/all/modules/itweak_upload\\";}s:20:\\"preprocess functions\\ in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:159:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SELECT r.* FROM role r INNER JOIN permission p ON r.rid = p.rid WHERE p.perm LIKE '%post comments%' ORDER BY r.name\";s:5:\"%file\";s:60:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/modules/user/user.module\";s:5:\"%line\";i:1795;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:176:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SELECT r.* FROM role r INNER JOIN permission p ON r.rid = p.rid WHERE p.perm LIKE '%post comments without approval%' ORDER BY r.name\";s:5:\"%file\";s:60:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/modules/user/user.module\";s:5:\"%line\";i:1795;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:207:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SELECT dst FROM url_alias WHERE src = 'sites/all/modules/print/icons/print_icon.gif' AND language IN('en', '') ORDER BY language DESC, pid DESC\";s:5:\"%file\";s:53:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/path.inc\";s:5:\"%line\";i:68;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:85:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SELECT * FROM system WHERE type = 'theme'\";s:5:\"%file\";s:54:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/theme.inc\";s:5:\"%line\";i:483;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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(0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:101:\"MySQL server has gone away\nquery: SELECT COUNT(*) FROM comments c WHERE c.nid = 2983 AND c.status = 0\";s:5:\"%file\";s:66:\"/home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/modules/comment/comment.module\";s:5:\"%line\";i:991;}', 3, '', 'http://insightweb.it/web/content/ora-vedremo-se-%C3%A8-ancora-l%E2%80%99europa-della-troika', '', '3.145.183.16', 1723684060) in /home/insightweb.it/public_html/web/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135
Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
query: INSERT INTO watchdog
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Warning: MySQL server has gone away
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Ora vedremo se è ancora l’Europa della Troika | Insight
La politica monetaria di sostegno all’economia è finita, e Inevitabilmente ne soffrono di più i paesi a più alto debito, l’Italia prima di tutti. Si vfrà se l'UE ha davvero deciso di cambiare la politica fallimentare del passato,
La fine della politica monetaria “accomodante” annunciata dalla Bce non giunge inaspettata, ma i mercati europei hanno lo stesso reagito con un netto calo. Per quello italiano, invece, si tratta di un vero e proprio crollo: la Borsa è andata a picco (oltre il 5% in chiusura) e i rendimenti dei titoli pubblici si sono impennati, con lo spread salito a livelli che non si vedevano da tempo, intorno ai 230 punti rispetto al titolo tedesco. A rendere la tempesta perfetta è arrivato anche il dato sull’inflazione Usa (8,6%, il massimo dal 1981), ancora in salita mentre gli operatori si aspettavano che rimanesse stabile, affossando anche gli indici di Wall Street che teme una stretta della Fed più forte del previsto.
Su un’economia mondiale che stava cercando di risollevarsi dai danni della pandemia si è abbattuto il macigno dell’invasione russa dell’Ucraina, con tutto il suo seguito di problemi legati alle sanzioni e a ulteriori inceppi nel commercio internazionale, soprattutto nel settore dell’energia e delle materie prime che già erano i principali fattori di spinta all’inflazione. Ora si aggiungono i rialzi dei tassi da parte delle banche centrali: sono efficaci quando l’inflazione deriva da un eccesso di domanda, mentre questa è una crisi da offerta. Si rischia che il prezzo non sia un semplice rallentamento della crescita, ma una recessione. I molti fattori in gioco rendono problematica qualsiasi previsione.
Ciò che invece era prevedibile è la particolare pesantezza della reazione negativa che colpisce l’Italia, che potrebbe essere solo all’inizio. Già dallo scorso dicembre avevamo dato conto delle preoccupazioni che serpeggiavano tra gli operatori su cosa sarebbe accaduto al nostro paese quando la Bce avesse cambiato rotta.
Negli ultimi tempi si è più volte accennato, anche da parte di esponenti della banca centrale, a un nuovo strumento che servisse a impedire un eccessivo scostamento fra i tassi d’interesse dei paesi dell’Eurozona, subito battezzato “scudo anti-spread”. Ma tutti i commentatori hanno rilevato come la presidente Christine Lagarde, nella conferenza stampa del 9 giugno, gli abbia dedicato solo un accenno in termini vaghi: la reazione dei mercati testimonia che è stato giudicato insufficiente.
Lo “scudo” già ci sarebbe, il programma OMT predisposto dalla Bce dopo il famoso whatever it takes di Draghi nel luglio 2012. Ma la condizione per accedervi è sottoporsi al famigerato Mes, cioè affidare alla Troika la guida del paese: dopo la bella prova data con la Grecia, non si sa se più demenziale o criminale, nessuno pensa di ripetere quell’esperienza. E non a caso, quindi, si è parlato di un “nuovo” strumento: sul quale, però, evidentemente non c’è ancora alcun accordo.
Ma la finanza ha tempi veloci. Già dalla prossima settimana si vedrà se i mercati hanno intenzione di testare se la Bce è davvero determinata a evitare che gli spread – e quello dell’Italia in particolare – si allarghino troppo. Naturalmente la Bce non è il solo attore in campo: la Commissione e il Consiglio dei capi di Stato e di governo dovranno far sentire la loro voce. Siamo alla cartina di tornasole che dovrà dire se l’Unione vuole davvero cambiare, proseguendo sulla strada tracciata per affrontare l’emergenza Covid, o rimanere quella della diffidenza tra paesi, dove dominano “compiti a casa”, regole e punizioni, nell’ambito di una teoria economica che si è dimostrata fallimentare ma non è ancora stata ripudiata.
Il programma PEPP, l’acquisto di titoli pubblici varato per affrontare i problemi della pandemia, è ancora in funzione e come è noto i suoi acquisti possono non rispettare la capital key, cioè la proporzione in base alla quota di capitale Bcedetenuta dai vari paesi. Può servire per tamponare gli eventuali (ma probabili) primi attacchi dei mercati ai titoli dei paesi a più alto debito, cioè per prendere tempo: non molto, però, perché quello che serve sono decisioni importanti, come furono il whatever it takes e il varo del Next Generation Eu. Solo cose del genere possono convincere i mercati che l’aria in Europa è cambiata davvero e quindi attaccare i singoli paesi sarebbe un’operazione senza prospettive. Se invece prevarranno le vecchie idee, prepariamoci a una nuova crisi. Ma attenzione, a forza di tirarle le corde si consumano, e magari si possono pure spezzare.
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