Godot and Eurozone’s Policy
Sottotitolo:
Junker's plan is a mocquery, and the monetary policy alone can't solve the eurozone’s problem. The policy of the eurozone has used us to expect events more or less decisive. When the event occurs however, it is difficult to give a clear judgment. In the case of the recent decisions of the European Commission on the so-called flexibility within the Stability Pact, many commentators have written that the glass is half full and half empty. In fact, the glass is empty. In reality , the glass is empty. Under the dress of numbers full of zero point something, nothing. For a few months we expected the plan of Mr.Juncker, the new-elected European Commission’s President. When it finally turned up, we found that it ranged between deception and mockery. According to the plan, the European Commission and the European Investment Bank should put together about 15 billion euro. Then this amount would be multiplied by twenty-one through added resources from unknown origin, reaching the availability of 315 billion euro. The enthusiasm for this evangelical multiplication of bread and fish was quickly deflated, and the wait began for new flexibility’s measures delivered by the European Commission. What is it? Briefly, it allows that the national resources used for the co-financing of European projects assisted by the Structural Funds may be detracted by the calculation of the budget deficit. Just to exemplify, the European Commission would allow Italy a deviation of 0.2 % of GDP in relation to the eurozone’s program of the deficit’s reduction. Beware; the attached condition is to stay within the threshold of the tree percent of the budget deficit. When the deficit should exceed the 3 % cap the “tolerance" would be canceled. The second measure of flexibility is the possibility that, in circumstances of serious gap between potential and actual growth (for example, the recession that has hit Italy in the past three years), the European Commission, in its discretion, may allow that the deficit is reduced by 0.25 percent of GDP, instead of 0.5 percent, as it is currently imposed by the eurozone’s crazy rules. As in the Beckett's theater, nobody stops waiting for Godot, so now the wait is moved on the measures, it is supposed, will be taken by the ECB. We must stress that Mario Draghi actually saved the euro, by cutting the claws of the financial markets, when he announced the commitment to do “whatever it takes” The financial resources for the renewal of maturing debt and the payment of interests are already granted at very low rates through the current ECB policy. So the real change would be the possibility for the member States to acquire additional resources to launch a major operation of public investment: In fact, a sizeable increase in public investment would enhance private investment, increase employment and revenues. In other words, a virtuous circle would be put in motion in the real economy. That’s reasonable, indeed. However there is a problem: the public investment expenditure increases the deficit, and the Commission in Brussels (backed by Berlin) prohibits the increase, regardless of the fact that it is intended to revive the agonizing investment, boost the growth and, ultimately, curb the debt- GDP- ratio. To tell the truth, to recognize that eurozone’s policy has failed, is now the basis for any meaningful attempt to change the situation. Yet Italian economy minister Padoan expresses satisfaction with the measures taken by the European Commission, and the premier Renzi exalts the "progress" (?) made during the evanescent Italian Presidency of the Union. We can’t anticipate the effect of a likely Alexis Tsipras’ electoral success in Greece. Certainly, the clash with the European Commission (and even more with Berlin) is going to be an uneven game, at the start. However the fact that the argument is opened, and a renegotiation of the terms of the Stability Pact is bound to become an open field between a member state and the eurozone authorities, is in itself the breaking of a taboo. The next step could be the opening of the confrontation with Spain after, according the current forecasts, Rajoy’s electoral defeat, and the actual chance of an alliance between Podemos movement and the Socialist Party. However here we enter the realm of possibility and uncertainty. While the only certain and disconcerting issue is the subordinate acquiescence, if not complicity, of the Italian government with the self-defeating policies that govern the eurozone. |